August 10, 2017
North Korea – Beware August 2017
I have warned in the Cycle of War reports that for whatever reason, August is always the number one period where war tends to begin. Indeed, the world is holding its breath as fears rise with the crisis over North Korea potentially escalating in to global war after Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un made threats to trade missile strikes. The two key dates on our war model with North Korea to watch are August 12/13, 2017 and September 11/12, 2017. We must be on guard for these are the prime periods where a confrontation could emerge.
Pyongyang’s volatile dictator Kim Jong-un has warned he was ‘carefully examining‘ plans to make ‘an enveloping fire’ around the US island of Guam which is home to about 163,000 people and an important American military base. He made these comments following Donald Trump’s apocalyptic warning that North Korea faces ‘fire and fury like the world has never seen‘ over its nuclear program.
The US then released images of supersonic bombers flying over the Korean peninsula.Then Kim Jong-un said the training mission ‘proves that the U.S. imperialists are nuclear war maniacs‘. Kim, loves to boast that his intercontinental rockets can reach the west coast of America declaring that the US would ‘pay dearly‘ for UN sanctions it successfully imposed with the support for the first time of China and Russia. In fact, Trump has managed to do what no president has done before – get the cooperation of both China and Russia. Nixon opened the door to China as a counter-measure against Russia – the old divide and conquer tactic. But Trump has pulled off a real political coup globally despite CNN and Congress.
Beijing has joined Trump and staged ‘large-scale‘ military exercises with dozens of warships, fighter jets and submarines adjacent to the Korean Peninsula on Monday. They have also moved 150,000 troops to its border with North Korea. Meanwhile, Russia moved military equipment including helicopters and combat vehicles to its southern frontier with North Korea. Putin has displayed its own massive military strength at a war games event in Siberia with a huge Navy Day parade in Vladivostok – about 100 miles from North Korean territory.
So why are these two dates coming up on our computer? The division of Korea between North and South Korea was the result of the allied victory in World War II in 1945, ending the Empire of Japan’s 35-year rule of Korea. The United States and the Soviet Union occupied the country, with the boundary between their zones of control along the 38th parallel. The United States supported the South, and the Soviet Union supported the North, and each government claimed sovereignty over the whole Korean peninsula. American troops occupy southern Korea, while the Soviet Union occupies the north, with the dividing line being the 38th parallel of latitude, which was established on September 8th, 1945 (1945,68). This arrangement proves to be the indirect beginning of a divided Korea which will lead to the Korean War in 1950.
The Korean War (1950–1953) left the two Koreas separated by the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in the later part of the Cold War and beyond. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 deprived North Korea of its main source of economic aid. Without Soviet aid, North Korea’s economy went into an economic free-fall in 1992 pretty much in line with the Economic Confidence Model calculated from the birth of the 38th Parallel.
At our Hong Kong WEC I went through the markets and illustrated that August would be the key turning point. The computer need not comprehend the fundamentals. It interlaces everything globally to produce the result for turning points. This is just a time we need to be on guard about market reactions. (see private Blog Post)