Posts tagged Public Policy Polling

New Poll Shows Paul More Electable Than Romney

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Source: http://www.revolutionpac.com

In a head to head match up Ron Paul fares better against President Obama than front-runner Mitt Romney. A new Poll conducted by Public Policy Polling shows Paul in a statistical tie with Obama and performing better than Romney. The poll was published on 3/22/12 and shows the continued divide among republicans nationwide and their inability to unify around a single candidate in this long, drawn out primary season. One of Paul’s greatest strengths from this poll is his performance among somewhat liberal and moderate participants. 26% of somewhat liberal participants approved of Paul, double that of Rick Santorum who was next closest. Paul also polls well among moderates as well coming in second to Mitt Romney in that category.

As the primaries move into their fourth month of elections and what seems like countless months of campaigning prior to that there is no clear nominee yet and this poll just reinforces that. Mitt Romney has less than half of the delegates needed to clinch the GOP nominee and there are still 22 more contests including the two states richest in delegates Texas and California, which combined have 321 uncommitted delegates. Only time will tell how the GOP primaries and the RNC will play out however it is important to remember that despite the media bias towards Romney he would have to win nearly 100% of all delegates from now until after the May 22 primaries to clinch the nomination. At the absolute minimum there is at least another two months to continue fighting for the cause of liberty (in this primary at least) but more than likely this will go all the way to Tampa and the RNC.

The full poll can be viewed here http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_032212.pdf
Photo Courtesy of http://www.EUtimes.net

Paul leads in Iowa

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Source: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com

Newt Gingrich’s campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa.  He’s at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row.  His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%.  And there’s been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich’s image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has ‘strong principles,’ while 43% think he does not.

Paul’s ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa.  22% of voters think he’s run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it’s ‘very important’ that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa.  Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.

Paul’s base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest.  Among voters under 45 he’s at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich.  He’s really going to need that younger than normal electorate because with seniors Romney’s blowing him out 31-15 with Gingrich coming in 2nd at 18%. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters.  Young people and non-Republicans are an unusual coalition to hang your hat on in Iowa, and it will be interesting to see if Paul can actually pull it off.

Romney’s vote share is up 4 points from a week ago to 20% from it previous 16% standing. His favorability numbers have improved a little bit as well from 48/44 to 49/40. One thing Romney really has going for him is more room for growth than Paul.  Among voters who say they’re not firmly committed to their current candidate choice, Romney is the second choice for 19% compared to 17% for Perry, 15% for Bachmann, and only 13% for Paul.   It’s particularly worth noting that among Gingrich- who seems more likely to keep falling than turn it around- voters, he’s the second choice of 30% compared to only 11% for Paul.

In addition to having more support right now Paul also has firmer support (73% solidly committed) than Romney does (68% solidly committed.) But at the same time Romney appears to have more room for growth, which could allow him to overtake Paul in the last two weeks.

Two other notes on Romney: he’s now winning the electability primary- 25% of voters think he would have the best chance to defeat Obama compared to 17% for Gingrich and 16% for Paul. And he also leads Paul 24-18 among voters who watched the Sioux City debate on Thursday night, confirming general perception that he had the stronger performance.

The rest of the field isn’t getting much traction. Among the three candidates tied at 10%, Santorum has gained a couple points compared to last week, Perry has moved up a single point, and Bachmann is down a point. There is some indication that Iowans are warming up to Perry a little bit. He’s gone from a -4 (43/47) favorability to a +8 (48/40).

With six candidates in double digits there are still a lot of different things that could happen the final two weeks in Iowa. But it looks like Paul and Romney have emerged as the clear front runners.

Full results here

[CIM Comment:]

Now more than every we need the Champion of the Constitution!

Please visit Ron Paul’s official campaign site and donate today!

Ron Paul leads in Iowa poll: Will mainstream media black it out or start attacking?

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Source: http://www.allvoices.com

Update 12/19: USA Today On Politics says, “Paul’s rise comes as Newt Gingrich fades. The former House speaker has dropped nine percentage points nationally since the beginning of the month, according to the Gallup daily tracking poll.”

Original post 12/18: A Press Release from Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows Ron Paul leads in Iowa polls while Newt Gingrich spirals down fast due to his lack of campaigning in the state.

Twitter is buzzing with Ron Paul supporters celebrating and asking “what will the mainstream do with this information?”

Red_Pill_Media Rise of Ron Paul Proves The Establishment Media is Not All Powerful . They’re scared because they know the game is up. http://t.co/GGPcBbZG

Currently, taking the lead is Ron Paul at 23%, Mitt Romney at 20%, and Newt Gingrich trailing both way down at 14%.

Meanwhile, a three way tie goes to Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry all side-by-side at 10%.

Jon Huntsman takes 4% and finally Gary Johnson sits at the bottom with 2%.

PPP points out that spending time in Iowa campaigning has proved crucial in moving up in the polls. They report, “voters say it’s ‘very important’ that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa.”

PPP’s website reads, “PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country.” It goes on to say, “Testimonials: The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country during the last Presidential election.”

 

[CIM Comment:]

Now more than every we need the Champion of the Constitution!

Please visit Ron Paul’s official campaign site and donate today!

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