Posts tagged collapse
By Mac Slavo
This Chart Shows Us How Bad The Economy Really Is: “Flashing Red Warning”
Recent weeks have led to a fairly significant drop in stock valuations, with many expert analysts struggling to figure out exactly why it’s happening. You’ll hear them cite the weather, or market overreaction, or any number of reasons for why stocks have seen their share prices reduced and why they’ll be rebounding in the near-term.
What they won’t show you on mainstream financial channels is what’s really happening behind the scenes.
Forget about all the minute-by-minute noise for a moment and take a look at the following chart. It gives a very simple overview of earnings growth trends for stocks listed on the S&P 500 on a quarterly basis.
Last year saw what analysts would call fairly robust growth, and they had no problem citing these numbers for evidence of economic recovery.
We’re curious what they’d call it now, considering this chart shows a massive collapse in earnings per share growth across the board.
Pay close attention to that yellow line, which indicates growth (or lack there of) for the first quarter of 2014. According to Zero Hedge this is a Flashing Red Warning as earnings growth plunges to its lowest levels since 2012:
While the so-called “experts” were adamant in repeating that one must ignore all Q1 economic data (because of harsh weather you know), one thing the same “experts” pounded the table on was the earnings growth in 2014 which confirmed that the Fed was correct in tapering and that the corporate sector was well on its way to achieving “escape velocity” and a stable recovery. And then this happened…
(Chart via @Not_Jim_Cramer)
Most people, when you ask them how the economy is doing, will point to the Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P 500 as evidence of a healthy recovery.
What the majority of those people fail to look at is the underlying valuations for the stocks within those indexes.
If you are an investor and hold stocks, or are thinking about jumping in because this latest “correction” is about to take a turn for the better, we direct your attention to this absolutely critical piece of information regarding price-per-earnings from Karl Denninger of Market Ticker.
A bit of perspective is in order here. The number of stocks that have been trading on nothing more than QE-addled leverage, with nosebleed territory P/Es including Facebook (96), Amazon (537!), Netflix (180), LinkedIn (762), Salesforce (Negative P/E) and Twitter (ditto; -$3.41 EPS.)
Yeah, but the market is “cheap”, right? Sure it is with all these big-cap techs trading at prices like this…
There is only one reason to buy such a stock — you’re convinced that some other sucker will pay you an even greater multiple to sales (say much less earnings) than you paid.
That the air will eventually come out of such a market is inevitable.
The P/E ratio of a stock is basically the price of the stock compared to the earnings of said share. In the case of Amazon trading at 537 times earnings, this is an INCREDIBLE number considering most conservative financial advisers recommend dividend earning stocks in the 10 – 12 P/E range for investment purposes. In essence, the easiest way to interpret Amazon today is that an investor is willing to pay $537 for $1 in current earnings. So, investors who bought Amazon stock at its current price should see a return on that investment… in about 537 years (give or take) at current earnings.
Yes, that’s how crazy the stock market is right now, and Amazon is certainly not alone insofar as over-valuation is concerned.
Couple that with the earning growth chart above and you can clearly see that we are in very dangerous territory here.
And this doesn’t even take into account the economic warfare playing out between East and West, where Russia has now announced it will be actively pursuing a strategy to decouple its resource trade from the US dollar, meaning it will now trade in local currencies as opposed to the world’s traditional reserve currency.
As this new form of warfare plays out by the worlds super powers, all monetary systems will be affected. So how is this going to affect you? These effects will cause a continued degradation of the U.S. dollar with the real possibility that China and Russia will stop funding our debt. If and when this happens, the-you-know-what will inevitably hit the fan.
As Paul Craig Roberts noted recently, there is a reckoning coming and all evidence points to economic failure in 2014.
Or, we can all just go along with the prevailing narrative and pretend like happy days are here again.
The following song was released shortly after the 1929 stock market crash before anyone had realized its implications. It reassured Americans that “Your cares and troubles are gone… there’ll be no more from now on.”
We know how that ended up…
Image credit: http://www.shtfplan.com
Jim Rickards: The Demise Of The U.S. Dollar
(And Mutualy Assured Financial Destruction) Video
It won’t happen tomorrow but slowly but surely the world is moving from dollars. The petrodollar system which has been key to the world economy over the last 40 years is eroding. More and more country to country deals are being done in currencies other than the dollar. The economic world as we have known it, after Bretton Woods in the Cold War Era, the post Cold War era, and the post 9-11 era is fundamentally shifting. The dollar is not what it once was. It is no longer “almighty” and one should be prepared.
People have been predicting the death of the dollar for quite a while now, but many falsely believe that because hyperinflation hasn’t taken hold (there’s plenty of inflation though despite what we are told) we must be out of the woods. This would be a foolish assumption.
Since 2008 particularly I have watched the power of the dollar erode steadily. Countries are figuring out how to unwind their dollar positions without causing panic and killing the value of their dollar denominated assets. In order to unload dollar denominated assets and debt there has to be a willing buyer. Moving too quickly is suicide, but many “international actors” think not moving at all is also.
No one wants to get stuck holding the bag of dollars when things go south. But if things go bad (for the dollar) slowly the theory is an orderly less disruptive liquidation can occur. This will take, and has taken years. But it’s happening.
Image credit: http://www.againstcronycapitalism.org
About Nick Sorrentino
Nick Sorrentino is the co-founder and editor of AgainstCronyCapitalism.org. A political and communications consultant with clients across the political spectrum, he lives just outside of Washington DC where he can keep an eye on Leviathan.
Peter Schiff: Gold Update, The Dollar Will Collapse First, Janet Yellen Wants More Inflation & More
Published by Greg Hunter
http://usawatchdog.com/were-going-to-… – Peter Schiff, the CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, says, “The messes get progressively bigger because the bubbles get progressively bigger. We have the biggest bubble ever blown right now because we have a simultaneous bubble in the stock market and the real estate market and the bond market. . . . The air is coming out of all of them. The Fed knows this bubble is too big to pop. That’s why the Fed is going to come back with an even bigger round of QE (money printing) than the last round. We’re going to be hit with a tsunami of inflation. . . . I think we’re going to be stuck with a lot of the money, which means it will bid up consumer prices right here in America. New Fed Chief Janet Yellen said she wants more inflation. Well, she’s going to get it.”
Schiff thinks the U. S. Dollar will be in trouble first and not Treasury Bonds. Why? Schiff says, “The dollar will go poof first. Remember, the Federal Reserve can buy up all those bonds to stop the prices from collapsing, but in order to do so, it has to print dollars. But, eventually, the dollar collapses because the world figures out the game. The Fed can print all the dollars they want, but they can’t force people to accept them. That is going to be the problem.” (There is much more in the video interview.)
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with money manager Peter Schiff.
Too Big To Fail Banks Are Taking Over As Number Of U.S. Banks Falls To All-Time Record Low
The too big to fail banks have a larger share of the U.S. banking industry than they have ever had before. So if having banks that were too big to fail was a “problem” back in 2008, what is it today? As you will read about below, the total number of banks in the United States has fallen to a brand new all-time record low and that means that the health of the too big to fail banks is now more critical to our economy than ever. In 1985, there were more than 18,000 banks in the United States. Today, there are only 6,891 left, and that number continues to drop every single year. That means that more than 10,000 U.S. banks have gone out of existence since 1985. Meanwhile, the too big to fail banks just keep on getting even bigger. In fact, the six largest banks in the United States (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) have collectively gotten 37 percent larger over the past five years. If even one of those banks collapses, it would be absolutely crippling to the U.S. economy. If several of them were to collapse at the same time, it could potentially plunge us into an economic depression unlike anything that this nation has ever seen before.
Incredibly, there were actually more banks in existence back during the days of the Great Depression than there is today. According to the Wall Street Journal, the federal government has been keeping track of the number of banks since 1934 and this year is the very first time that the number has fallen below 7,000…
The number of federally insured institutions nationwide shrank to 6,891 in the third quarter after this summer falling below 7,000 for the first time since federal regulators began keeping track in 1934, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
And the number of active bank branches all across America is falling too. In fact, according to the FDIC the total number of bank branches in the United States fell by 3.2 percent between the end of 2009 and June 30th of this year.
Unfortunately, the closing of bank branches appears to be accelerating. The number of bank branches in the U.S. declined by 390 during the third quarter of 2013 alone, and it is being projected that the number of bank branches in the U.S. could fall by as much as 40 percent over the next decade.
Can you guess where most of the bank branches are being closed?
If you guessed “poor neighborhoods” you would be correct.
According to Bloomberg, an astounding 93 percent of all bank branch closings since late 2008 have been in neighborhoods where incomes are below the national median household income…
Banks have shut 1,826 branches since late 2008, and 93 percent of closings were in postal codes where the household income is below the national median, according to census and federal banking data compiled by Bloomberg.
It turns out that opening up checking accounts and running ATM machines for poor people just isn’t that profitable. The executives at these big banks are very open about the fact that they “love affluent customers“, and there is never a shortage of bank branches in wealthy neighborhoods. But in many poor neighborhoods it is a very different story…
About 10 million U.S. households lack bank accounts, according to a study released in September by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. An additional 24 million are “underbanked,” using check-cashing services and other storefront businesses for financial transactions. The Bronx in New York City is the nation’s second most underbanked large county—behind Hidalgo County in Texas—with 48 percent of households either not having an account or relying on alternative financial providers, according to a report by the Corporation for Enterprise Development, an advocacy organization for lower-income Americans.
And if you are waiting for a whole bunch of new banks to start up to serve these poor neighborhoods, you can just forget about it. Because of a whole host of new rules and regulations that have been put on the backs of small banks over the past several years, it has become nearly impossible to start up a new bank in the United States. In fact, only one new bank has been started in the United States in the last three years.
So the number of banks is going to continue to decline. 1,400 smaller banks have quietly disappeared from the U.S. banking industry over the past five years alone. We are witnessing a consolidation of the banking industry in America that is absolutely unprecedented.
Just consider the following statistics. These numbers come from a recent CNN article…
-The assets of the six largest banks in the United States have grown by 37 percent over the past five years.
-The U.S. banking system has 14.4 trillion dollars in total assets. The six largest banks now account for 67 percent of those assets and all of the other banks account for only 33 percent of those assets.
-Approximately 1,400 smaller banks have disappeared over the past five years.
-JPMorgan Chase is roughly the size of the entire British economy.
-The four largest banks have more than a million employees combined.
-The five largest banks account for 42 percent of all loans in the United States.
-Bank of America accounts for about a third of all business loans all by itself.
-Wells Fargo accounts for about one quarter of all mortgage loans all by itself.
-About 12 percent of all cash in the United States is held in the vaults of JPMorgan Chase.
As you can see, without those banks we do not have a financial system.
Our entire economy is based on debt, and if those banks were to disappear the flow of credit would dry up almost completely. Without those banks, we would rapidly enter an economic depression unlike anything that the United States has seen before.
It is kind of like a patient that has such an advanced case of cancer that if you try to kill the cancer you will inevitably also kill the patient. That is essentially what our relationship with these big banks is like at this point.
Unfortunately, since the last financial crisis the too big to fail banks have become even more reckless. Right now, four of the too big to fail banks each have total exposure to derivatives that is well in excess of 40 TRILLION dollars.
Keep in mind that U.S. GDP for the entire year of 2012 was just 15.7 trillion dollars and the U.S. national debt is just 17 trillion dollars.
So when you are talking about four banks that each have more than 40 trillion dollars of exposure to derivatives you are talking about an amount of money that is almost incomprehensible.
Posted below are the figures for the four banks that I am talking about. I have written about this in the past, but in this article I have included the very latest updated numbers from the U.S. government. I think that you will agree that these numbers are absolutely staggering…
Total Assets: $1,947,794,000,000 (nearly 1.95 trillion dollars)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $71,289,673,000,000 (more than 71 trillion dollars)
Total Assets: $1,319,359,000,000 (a bit more than 1.3 trillion dollars)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $60,398,289,000,000 (more than 60 trillion dollars)
Bank Of America
Total Assets: $1,429,737,000,000 (a bit more than 1.4 trillion dollars)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $42,670,269,000,000 (more than 42 trillion dollars)
Total Assets: $113,064,000,000 (just a shade over 113 billion dollars – yes, you read that correctly)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $43,135,021,000,000 (more than 43 trillion dollars)
Please don’t just gloss over those huge numbers.
Let them sink in for a moment.
Goldman Sachs has total assets worth approximately 113 billion dollars (billion with a little “b”), but they have more than 43 TRILLON dollars of total exposure to derivatives.
That means that the total exposure that Goldman Sachs has to derivatives contracts is more than 381 times greater than their total assets.
Most Americans do not understand that Wall Street has been transformed into the largest casino in the history of the world. The big banks are being incredibly reckless with our money, and if they fail it will bring down the entire economy.
The biggest chunk of these derivatives contracts that Wall Street banks are gambling on is made up of interest rate derivatives. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the global financial system has a total of 441 TRILLION dollars worth of exposure to interest rate derivatives.
When that Ponzi scheme finally comes crumbling down, there won’t be enough money on the entire planet to fix it.
We had our warning back in 2008.
The too big to fail banks were in the headlines every single day and our politicians promised to fix the problem.
But instead of fixing it, the too big to fail banks are now 37 percent larger and our economy is more dependent on them than ever before.
And in their endless greed for even larger paychecks, they have become insanely reckless with all of our money.
Mark my words – there is going to be a derivatives crisis.
When it happens, we are going to see some of these too big to fail banks actually fail.
At that point, there will be absolutely no hope for the U.S. economy.
We willingly allowed the too big to fail banks to become the core of our economic system, and now we are all going to pay the price.
This article first appeared here at the Economic Collapse Blog. Michael Snyder is a writer, speaker and activist who writes and edits his own blogs The American Dream and Economic Collapse Blog. Follow him on Twitter here.
Image credit: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts – A Real Collapse in the Dollar, Gold Could Be $30,000 an Ounce
Published by Greg Hunter
When it comes to war in Syria, economist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts says, “This time the big lie didn’t work like it did in Iraq.” On fallout of a possible Syrian war, Dr. Roberts worries, “If they start abandoning the dollar, the collapse of the exchange rate will bring down the whole house of cards in the United States. The Fed will lose control. The banks will fail. Prices will rise dramatically. People will essentially not be able to pay their bills. It will be an unbelievable mess.” What would happen to gold with a Syrian war? Dr. Roberts says, “If you get a real collapse in the dollar, gold could be $30,000 an ounce. Who knows?” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with former Assistant Treasury Secretary Dr. Paul Craig Roberts.
Posted by Judy Morris
Americans are Getting Poorer as Disposable Income Continues to Plummet
After all, the markets have believed that bad economic news is good news for the markets for four years based on the belief that a weak economy will mean more money printing from the Fed.
However, the real issue in the BEA’s report on GDP growth was the collapse in real per capita disposable income which fell at a annualized rate of 9.21%.
That is a truly staggering collapse in incomes. The last time we say anything even close to this was in the third quarter of 2008.
That was right after Lehman failed and the entire economy and stock market were melting down. Buckle up, things are getting worse in the US at a truly alarming rate.
Read the rest at Zero Hedge, here.
The Turning Point – Full Film…. Exposing Bilderburg Group & Ruling Elites Clandestine CONTROL
Often the public are unaware of the true machinations of rule over the world’s population….there are clandestine, secretive meetings that are held for the elite to exert undemocratic rule over an unsuspecting and overloaded/worked/stressed world population. Wars are decided and policies agreed without public knowledge…we live in an age of institutionalized deception, championed by those who stand to gain the most, (whom oddly enough, have so much already) the privileged ruling elite and senior government members and heads of business and industry, even high ranking military figures are invited to collaborate and receive instructions on the master plans for the way forward to total domination and dictatorship of the entire world, the resources and people of the entire planet. Start to research the diabolical ambitions of this group and those surrounding it and your world view will be shattered….hard to believe, many will find it hard to face the facts that the establishments we have all agreed to trust our entire lives are being manipulated and used against us. None of us would want what these elites are implementing, incrementally (to reduce public opposition), their vision of fully implementing totally slavery on every aspect of our lives..!!! Using their organisations, such as the CFR, UN, Club of Rome, Tavistock institute amongst the hundreds of other independent not for profit think tank institutions they plan to see the UN agenda 21 play out to create a Zeitgeist utopian vision for the elite and total slavery and control of every aspect of the dominion sub class. The horrendous facts are out there…WAKE UP and free yourself from mental slavery and actual slavery….PEACE 4 ALL Many thanks to the team bringing us important insightful documentaries, please support them. Originally Published on Nov 5, 2012 by weavingspider
By Tyler Durden
In just under 30 minutes, Peter Schiff and Doug Casey muse on many facets of the crumbling edifice of the status quo that is our current world.
From Gold’s relatively imminent rise to $5,000 and beyond, to investor ignorance of reality, Casey & Schiff swing from discussions of the US as political entity going forward to ‘escape from America’ plans for personal and wealth assets, and the realization that the biggest casualty (of US indebtedness), aside from individual liberty, is the value of the dollar – as taxing the middle class is unpopular with both parties – leaving only one route for the government – the inflation tax. Owning gold, silver, and foreign assets is preferred and while the rest of the world is also printing, the US is likely to beat them all.
People “are clueless with respect to the true state of the global economy,” with regard to inflation, fiat currencies, and specifically what will happen to the dollar. The conversation is wide-ranging and absolutely must-see as they remind market-watchers that “the whole thing is artificial,” as you can’t just keep printing money and monetizing debt without the dollar imploding with monetary policy descending (along with its trillion dollar coin) into ‘Three Stooges’ comedy.
The conversation weaves to some endgame discussions which bring Peter to discuss his father, who he sees as a political prisoner, and his views on the future…
“the biggest change that is coming to the global economy is a realignment of global living standards.”
There is something here for everyone…
Chancellor George Osborne has named Mark Carney, who is the current governor of the Bank of Canada and Chairman of the Financial Stability Board of the G20, has been chosen for governor of the Bank of England and successor to Mervyn King.
In April it was revealed that Carney was being “informally approached as a potential candidate to replace King as head of the central Bank of England in June of 2013.”
Obsorne explained that Carney brings “strong leadership and external experience the Bank needs.” Carney and his leadership in Canada were recognized for having weathered the central banking schemes “better than any other Western country.”
The Bank of England, established 318 years ago, is expected to take a new direction under Carney’s leadership – a suspected necessity for the technocrats to gain stronger hold over the financial markets. There are rumors that the incessant printing of fiat will be curbed because of its inability to stimulate the global economy. This strategic move may also ensure that the City of London can repair its reputation.
Carney’s position as governor of the central Bank of England will last for 8 years; however Carney has indicated that he expects to serve for 5 years and hand over the position in 2018.
Carney appears to be a solid choice, as he has not been tainted by the planned implosion of the global financial market that was the Crash of 2008. He also has a long history with the technocrats. Carney was employed by the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc in the City of London. He also worked at Goldman Sachs locations in Tokyo, New York and Toronto. Carney has a masters and PhD degree from the globalist-funded Oxford University.
Yet Carney’s involvement in the 1998 Russian financial collapse that Goldman Sachs created seems to have escaped the mainstream media’s memory. In response, and to divert attention, Carney used precise coercion to convince the Russian government to become indebted to Goldman Sachs as a saving grace from the devastation that the crash threatened to produce.
Like any good technocratic institution, Goldman Sachs came to the “aid” of the Russian government with loans to the tune of $1.25 billion to be used for purchasing bonds. This scheme was not enough to save the nation, and just like clockwork; the Russian government defaulted and was indebted to Goldman Sachs.
By Patrick Henningsen
21st Century Wire
How does it make you feel when you see people fight like animals – over something like a new iPhone or Samsung mobile phone?
You can tell the health of the tree by the quality of its fruits. America, as is evidenced by this week’s annual materialistic ritual known as ‘Black Friday’, has produced this particularly rotten fruit, consistently. It’s getting way too predictable for our liking.
The name “Black” joined with Friday, in itself, is worth looking at – in all its Satanic symbolism.
Why do they try to market this event as some sort of national holiday and call it “Black”?
It all started with the Cabbage Patch Doll uprisings back in the 1980′s. It seemed like a fluke at the time. But the trend has raged on, and on. An epic battle for a load of cheap plastic made in China and Vietnam, mostly by women and children on a dollar a day.
Quite simply, it’s a victory for worldly goods, over humanity, as people worship brands like gods for sale. The devil’s handiwork, no less.
In reality, Black Friday is nothing more than a collective con – a nonevent, made to appear as an event.
American wage slaves who have witnessed such riots like in the videos below, should know by now that America’s once coveted status as the progressive world’s cultural leader – more and more it’s looking like ‘American exceptionalism’ could be the stuff of 20th century history already.
Those who have taken part in the Black Friday ritual should also know that their rulers are indeed laughing at them right now – as they watch their social engineering master plan come to fruition – reduced to a shallow pulp of mindless consumerism currently in the process of eating itself.
The remaining, mentally challenged chattering classes, will also watch these ugly scenes and then sit and argue whether Black Friday riots are the result of an Obama or Romney victory, as if. This level of sub-intelligence is what killed American democracy – another victory for the elite.
On a foreign policy note, if you are an Arab watching these scenes below, you might want to ask yourself, if this is what Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton were talking about when they waxed lyrical during your Arab Spring (that wasn’t) about the virtues of exporting ”American values of freedom and democracy”?
Imagine when the dollar collapses – how ugly would that look. Empty supermarket shelves. How would Americans treat each other then?
It’s become a pathetic tradition, in what is way past the point of national embarrassment, but it’s not – instead, they promote it…
Watch as it gets even uglier…